The simulation runs for 4 simulated years. Each year has 4 rooms you go through in order:
YEAR 1 → Design Room → Forecasting Room → Production Room → Boardroom
YEAR 2 → Design Room → Forecasting Room → Production Room → Boardroom
YEAR 3 → Design Room → Forecasting Room → Production Room → Boardroom
YEAR 4 → Design Room → Forecasting Room → Production Room → Boardroom
You cannot skip any room. Each one unlocks after you complete the previous one.
The screen is divided into three main areas:
LEFT SIDE: A table with 6 rows (one for each forecaster) and 3 columns (Andrei, Aya, Claire, Lorenzo, Byron, Ruth) plus a final column called “Consensus.”
Your two products are listed as rows: “Model A” and “Model B.”
Each cell in the table has a number. The last column (Consensus) has a number for each model.
CENTER: Two bar charts.
RIGHT SIDE: Four option checkboxes (only one can be selected per model):
Below each option is a small table showing the financial impact (Price, Cost, Profit).
At the very bottom is a text box for your “Strategy Statement” and a big red “SUBMIT” button.
Your job: Pick ONE option for Model A. Pick ONE option for Model B.
Step 1: Ignore the left side table for now.
Just glance at it — write down the Consensus number for Model A and Model B. You’ll need those in the Forecasting Room.
Example:
That’s all you need from the left side right now.
Step 2: Look at the RIGHT side.
Look at the FOUR options listed for Model A. Each one has a Profit number next to it.
Example format:
OPTION: STYLISH
Model A Price: $245 Cost: $175 Profit: $70
OPTION: STORAGE CAPACITY
Model A Price: $252 Cost: $182 Profit: $70
OPTION: UPGRADED COMMUNICATION
Model A Price: $255 Cost: $185 Profit: $70
OPTION: EXTERIOR MATERIAL
Model A Price: $248 Cost: $178 Profit: $73
Step 3: Find the HIGHEST Profit number for Model A.
In the example above:
You check the box next to Exterior Material.
Step 4: Do the same for Model B.
Look at the Profit numbers for Model B next to each option.
Example:
You check the box next to Storage Capacity.
Step 5: Write your Strategy Statement.
The text box at the bottom says something like: “My strategy used in the Design Room goes here…”
Write 1-2 sentences. Something like:
“We selected the options with the highest per-unit profit for each model. This maximizes margin while maintaining demand stability.”
OR simply:
“We chose options that optimize per-unit profitability for both Model A and Model B.”
Step 6: Hit SUBMIT.
Higher profit per unit = better option.
Do NOT pick based on:
Only pick based on: Which one gives you the most profit per phone sold.
Some options raise the price AND raise the cost by the same amount. The profit stays the same.
Example:
Option: Stylish
Model A Price: $245 → $270 Cost: $175 → $200 Profit: $70 → $70
Price went up $25. Cost went up $25. Profit is still $70.
That option is NO BETTER than picking “None.” You should not pick it just because the price is higher.
Always check the Profit column, not the Price column.
Students often spend all their time on Model A and just pick anything for Model B.
Don’t do that. Model B is the volatile one — it needs the same careful analysis. Pick the option with the highest profit for Model B too.
You’ll need the Consensus numbers in the Forecasting Room. Write them down NOW before you hit Submit. You can’t go back to this screen after you submit.
The screen looks similar to the Design Room but with one major difference:
The left side table is the same (6 forecasters, Model A and Model B rows, Consensus column).
But the CENTER area now has input boxes where you type your own forecast number for each model.
There is also a bar chart comparing your entered forecast to the Consensus.
At the bottom is the Strategy Statement text box and a SUBMIT button.
Your job: Enter your predicted monthly demand for Model A and Model B.
Step 1: Get your Consensus numbers from the Design Room.
You wrote these down. Let’s say:
Step 2: Calculate your OWN average of the 6 forecasters.
Look at the table on the left. For Model A, add up all 6 numbers and divide by 6.
Example:
Andrei: 54
Aya: 64
Claire: 62
Lorenzo: 58
Byron: 60
Ruth: 61
Sum = 54+64+62+58+60+61 = 359
Average = 359 ÷ 6 = 59.8 (round to 60)
Compare this to the Consensus on the screen (which might say 63 or 65).
If your average is DIFFERENT from the Consensus → USE YOUR AVERAGE.
Step 3: Multiply by 8.
The sales window is May–December. That’s 8 months where customers actually buy phones.
Total units to forecast = Your average × 8
Example: 60 × 8 = 480 units
This is the number you type into the input box.
Step 4: Type your numbers into the input boxes.
You should see two input boxes — one for Model A, one for Model B.
Type your calculated number for each.
Example:
Model A: 480
Model B: 200
Step 5: Compare your entered number to the Consensus.
The bar chart on the screen will show your number vs the Consensus. If they’re very different (more than 10 units), the chart will make it look dramatic. That’s fine. Trust your math.
Step 6: Write your Strategy Statement.
Something like:
“We calculated the mathematical average of all 6 forecasters rather than relying on the Consensus. For Model A, our average was 60 (vs Consensus 65). For Model B, our average was 23 (vs Consensus 35). We multiplied by 8 months to account for the May–December sales window.”
Step 7: Hit SUBMIT.
Calculate your own average. Don’t just use the Consensus.
The game shows you the Consensus as a convenience. But the board (specifically Carla) wants to know if you did your own math.
If your average differs from the Consensus and you used your average — that’s the RIGHT move. Be ready to explain why.
Many students just type in the Consensus number without doing the math. Then in the Boardroom, Carla asks “How did you calculate your forecast?” and they say “I used the Consensus” — which signals they didn’t actually calculate anything.
Always do the math yourself.
The number on the screen is a MONTHLY demand forecast. But you have 8 months to sell, not 1 month.
If you don’t multiply by 8, you’ll produce 8x too few units and miss all the sales you could have made.
If your average is 59.8, round to 60. If your average is 59.2, round to 59.
Always round to the nearest whole number. The simulation doesn’t deal in decimals.
This is the most complex room. The screen is divided into areas:
LEFT SIDE: A timeline or Gantt chart showing production months (January through December) with colored blocks for each supplier.
CENTER: Supplier comparison table with 4 suppliers listed. Each has:
RIGHT SIDE: Input areas where you allocate production quantities to each supplier for Model A and Model B.
BOTTOM: Strategy Statement and SUBMIT button.
Your job: Decide which supplier makes Model A and which supplier makes Model B.
| Supplier | What it’s like | Best for |
|---|---|---|
| FarFarAway | Cheap, slow (4-month lead time) | Model A (stable demand) |
| Far Away | Medium cost, medium speed (3 months) | Backup or mixed |
| PrettyClose | Expensive, fast (0 months lead time) | Model B (volatile demand) |
| Very Fast | Most expensive, fastest (0 months) | Mid-year adjustments |
Step 1: Look at your forecast from Room 2.
You calculated: Model A = 480 units, Model B = 200 units (example).
Step 2: Assign Model A to the cheapest, slowest supplier.
Model A demand is stable. It doesn’t change much month to month. You don’t need flexibility. You just need low cost.
→ FarFarAway is your best choice for Model A.
Example allocation for Model A:
Step 3: Assign Model B to the fastest, most expensive supplier.
Model B demand is volatile. It can swing up or down. You need the ability to change your mind quickly.
→ PrettyClose is your best choice for Model B.
Example allocation for Model B:
Step 4: Check capacity.
Each supplier has a maximum monthly capacity. Make sure your order doesn’t exceed what the supplier can deliver.
Example:
480 < 60,000 → OK, FarFarAway can handle it.
200 < 35,000 → OK, PrettyClose can handle it.
Step 5: Consider split allocation.
If one supplier can’t cover all your demand (order exceeds capacity), you split between two suppliers.
Example: Model A needs 90,000 units. FarFarAway only makes 60,000 per month.
Solution:
Step 6: Write your Strategy Statement.
Something like:
“We matched each product to the supplier that fits its demand profile. Model A is stable and predictable, so we used FarFarAway (lowest unit cost). Model B is volatile and requires flexibility, so we used PrettyClose (fastest lead time). This approach minimizes cost for Model A while preserving the ability to react to demand changes for Model B.”
Step 7: Hit SUBMIT.
Model A = cheapest/slowest. Model B = fastest/most expensive.
This is the single most important supplier rule in the game.
If Model B demand suddenly drops and you’re using FarFarAway (4-month lead time), you’re stuck with all the units you ordered. You can’t cancel. You can’t change. You have to buy them all and try to sell them at a discount.
PrettyClose has 0-month lead time — you can adjust mid-year if needed.
Always check that the supplier can actually make the number of units you want to order. If you order 80,000 from a supplier with 60,000 capacity, you’re short 20,000 units.
Every supplier has a one-time setup fee. If you only need 200 units, using a supplier with a $2M setup fee might not be worth it. But for large orders, the cheaper per-unit cost outweighs the setup fee.
During the year, if actual demand is running MORE than 20% above your forecast, you can issue a change order to adjust production. This costs money (usually $2M per change order).
When to issue a change order:
When NOT to issue a change order:
This room looks different from the others.
You’re shown a summary of your year’s performance:
Then 5 people appear one at a time (the Board Members). Each one asks you a question.
After each question, you answer out loud (or type your answer). Then the board member says whether they’re satisfied and gives you a vote (or not).
At the end, you see your total votes out of 5.
| Board Member | Role | Sample Question |
|---|---|---|
| Carla | Forecasting | “Walk us through how you developed your demand forecast.” |
| Ankit | Risk | “How did you account for demand uncertainty in your decisions?” |
| Matheo | Cost | “Why did you select those particular suppliers?” |
| Adele | Sourcing | “How are you ensuring supply flexibility for volatile products?” |
| Mia | Capacity | “What’s your plan if demand exceeds your production capacity?” |
Carla (Forecasting):
“We calculated the mathematical average of all 6 forecasters rather than relying on the Consensus. We compared our average to the Consensus and used our calculated average because it gave us a more accurate baseline. We then multiplied by 8 to account for the May–December sales window.”
Ankit (Risk):
“We selected design options that maintain or reduce standard deviation in demand. For Model B specifically, we deliberately underproduced relative to the Consensus because the cost of overproducing (markdown/liquidation) exceeded the cost of underproducing (lost profit). This minimizes our exposure to demand volatility.”
Matheo (Cost):
“We matched each model to the supplier that fits its demand profile. Model A is stable and predictable, so we assigned it to FarFarAway — the lowest cost per unit supplier. Model B is volatile, so we assigned it to PrettyClose — the fastest supplier with zero lead time. This ensures we don’t over-invest in flexibility where it’s not needed.”
Adele (Sourcing):
“We structured production to begin early enough with flexible suppliers to preserve our ability to adjust. For Model B, we allocated a portion of production to start in January rather than waiting until demand patterns were clearer. This gives us room to react if actual demand diverges from forecast.”
Mia (Capacity):
“We ensured maximum flexible capacity is allocated to absorb demand swings, particularly for Model B. We monitor actual sales monthly against forecast. If demand runs more than 20% above our plan for multiple consecutive months, we issue a change order to increase production with our flexible supplier.”
If you don’t know what to say:
What did you decide? “We chose [option/supplier/number] for [reason].”
Why did you decide that? “Because it [maximizes profit / minimizes risk / fits the demand profile / follows the newsvendor logic].”
What would you do differently? “If demand shifts more than 20% above forecast, we’d issue a change order to adjust production.”
What gets you bad votes:
If you can’t explain why you picked a certain option or supplier, you look unprepared. The board wants to see that you thought carefully, not that you got lucky.
Fix: Before you answer each question, take 3 seconds. Think about what you actually did in that room and why. Then speak.
Bad answer: “We picked the best option.” Good answer: “We picked Stylish because it had the highest profit per unit ($73) compared to all other options, and the margin improvement of $3 per unit justified any demand impact.”
If a year went badly and the board asks about it:
Own your mistakes. The board respects teams that can diagnose what went wrong.
The Newsvendor Problem is the core decision rule in this simulation. It tells you whether to produce MORE or LESS than the Consensus forecast.
Overage Cost (Co): What you lose for every unit you make but cannot sell.
Underage Cost (Cu): What you lose for every unit you could have made but didn’t.
If Co > Cu → Underproduce (make less than forecast) If Cu > Co → Overproduce (make more than forecast)
Why? Because you want to avoid the MORE expensive mistake.
Model A:
Model B:
For Model A: When in doubt, make MORE than the Consensus says. For Model B: When in doubt, make LESS than the Consensus says.
When the board asks “How did you decide production quantity?”, say:
“We applied the newsvendor framework. We calculated the underage cost (lost profit) and overage cost (markdown loss) for each model. For Model B, the overage cost of $136.50 per unit exceeded the underage cost of $90, meaning it was more expensive to overproduce than to underproduce. Therefore, we deliberately produced below the Consensus forecast for Model B.”
| Year | Model A Options | Model B Options |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Upgraded Communication, Exterior Material, Stylish, Storage Capacity | Same 4 |
| Year 2 | Stylish, Storage Capacity, Extended Battery, Durability | Same 4 |
| Year 3 | Extended Battery, Durability, Audio Quality, GPS Anti-theft | Same 4 |
| Year 4 | GPS Anti-theft, Audio Quality, Super Slim, Camera Quality | Same 4 |
Note: The exact options may vary slightly. Always check the screen — the options change every year. But the decision rule stays the same: pick the one with the highest profit per unit.
DESIGN ROOM
- Compare profit per unit for each option
- Pick the HIGHEST profit for Model A
- Pick the HIGHEST profit for Model B
- Write down Consensus numbers (you need them next)
FORECASTING ROOM
- Calculate your OWN average of all 6 forecasters
- Compare to Consensus — use your average if different
- Multiply by 8 (May–December = 8 months)
- Enter the result as your forecast
PRODUCTION ROOM
- Model A → cheapest/slowest supplier (FarFarAway)
- Model B → fastest/expensive supplier (PrettyClose)
- Check capacity isn't exceeded
BOARDROOM
- Carla → talk about your own average calculation
- Ankit → talk about managing demand uncertainty
- Matheo → talk about matching suppliers to demand profiles
- Adele → talk about early flexible production for Model B
- Mia → talk about having spare capacity for demand swings
NEWSVENDOR
- Model A: overage $17.50 < underage $70 → OVERPRODUCE
- Model B: overage $136.50 > underage $90 → UNDERPRODUCE
RULE: Model B = underproduce always
MATH
- Profit = Price − Cost
- Margin % = (Profit ÷ Price) × 100
- Total units = Forecast × 8
- Average = sum of 6 numbers ÷ 6